The Three Selections
Best Bet
The runner our model rates strongest overall for that race — the highest-confidence read across everything it considers.
Next Best
The model's second-strongest runner in the same race — right behind the Best Bet, not far off it.
Best Value
Picked differently to the other two — not just "who's most likely to win" but "where is the market underestimating a runner's real chance." That gap is what we call an edge.
What "Market Edge" Means
For every runner, our model forms its own view of how likely it is to win — independent of what the betting market currently thinks. When we publish a selection, we also show whether the model sees a genuine edge on it: a case where its own probability is meaningfully better than what the market price implies.
Sometimes the model's top-rated runner and the market favourite are the same horse — no edge there, just genuine strength. Best Value exists for the opposite case: a runner the model rates well above what its price suggests the market thinks of it.
What The Model Actually Looks At
We're not going to hand over the exact formula — that's the part that makes TIPSTA worth using instead of guessing yourself. But at a high level, every selection factors in things like:
Recent Form
How a runner has actually been performing, not just its last finishing position.
Race Suitability
Distance, track, and barrier draw — whether today's specific conditions suit this runner.
Race Shape
How the race is likely to be run and where a runner is likely to find itself in the field.
Jockey & Trainer
The strike rate and record of the combination booked for the ride.
Market Movement
How the betting market is moving on a runner in the lead-up to the race.
Class
How today's grade of race compares to what a runner has proven itself against before.
Every one of these gets weighed and combined by the model into a single view of each runner's chance — that weighting, and exactly how it all fits together, is the part we keep to ourselves. What you get is the output: three selections, and an honest read on which ones we think have a genuine edge.
No Guarantees
Horse racing is inherently unpredictable, and past performance never guarantees future results. The model gives us — and you — a structured, data-driven read on every race. It doesn't make the outcome certain. We publish every result, win or lose, so you can judge it for yourself over time.